Minimizing End of Life Regrets
June 1, 2025
Why Invest Internationally?
August 1, 2025
By Brett Freese
The Highs and Lows of the Stock Market:
Stock Market in the 2nd Quarter: The S&P 500 hit a 12-month low on April 8th, 2025, at 4910.42 and hit all-time new highs on June 30, 2025, at 6215.08. This equates to more than a 26.57% increase from the low to the high of this quarter. This time frame is important to remember because on April 8th, most of the voices being heard in the media were very pessimistic, and the mood was “things are only going to get worse.” We are so grateful to have clients who understand that markets and moods go up and down, but it is so important to keep to the investment strategy.
Economic & Investment Highlights:
- Tariffs: “Liberation Day” in terms of Tariffs has come and gone, but the intent of his “bring everyone to his table” strategy and also to create national revenue, is still clearly in process and seems unpredictable. World trade needs to be both free and fair trade in policies and in practice. My hope is that we get both over the long term. July 9th is the next big day to watch when the pause on the April 2nd Tariffs may end if deals are not made by then.
- Iran and Oil Prices: Surprisingly to most people, the US attack on Iran’s Nuclear Program has brought with it flat to lower oil prices so far, and the possibility of peace in the region has increased.
- “One Big Beautiful Bill”: The final Bill will likely be passed a few days after this newsletter is written, but some of the likely changes in tax law focus on extending the previous tax cuts and increased standard deductions, increased cap on SALT (state and local tax deductions), Medicare and Food assistance stricter requirements to qualify, no or limited tax on overtime and tips, estate taxes, clean Energy tax credit reductions, and many other economic adjustments.
- The Federal Reserve (Fed): The Trump Administration has not interacted well with the current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump wants rates lower, but the Fed Chairman Powell and most of the Fed Bank Presidents are content with keeping rates the same and watching for the effects of tariffs on inflation. Many of the Fed members, including Chairman Powell, are stating that they are data-dependent when it comes to the next move in rates. Always keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to achieve both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment.
Historical Stock Market Declines:
Market declines and inclines rarely look the same or even feel the same, but they do happen, and the ups and downs are a part of the process. It is important to have a plan/strategy so emotions don’t dictate buying or selling.
A 5% or greater loss occurs about 3 times a year
A 10% or greater loss occurs about once a year
A 15% or greater loss occurs about once every 2 years
A 20% or greater loss occurs about once every 3.5 years
Please know that when stock prices go down, the “market collapse gurus” receive the most air time. Likewise, when stock prices go up, all the “bull market gurus” talk about how the market will continue to be up BIG. Please know that most “gurus” are great with hindsight to justify how important it is to have their voice heard.
Market Scorecard for the last 13 weeks ending 06/30/2025:
US Equities:
+ 10.94% S&P 500 (Index of the largest US publicly traded companies)
+ 17.12% Large Cap Growth – Morningstar Category
+ 4.06% Large Cap Value – Morningstar Category
+ 11.97% Russell 2000 Growth (Index of Small-cap growth US publicly traded companies)
+ 4.97% Russell 2000 Value (Index of Small-cap value US publicly traded companies)
International Equities:
+ 13.02% Foreign Large Growth – Morningstar Category
+ 11.31% Foreign Large Value – Morningstar Category
+ 18.47% Foreign Small/Mid Growth – Morningstar Category
+ 15.24% Foreign Small/Mid Value – Morningstar Category
Bonds:
+ 0.85% U.S. Aggregate Bond (Index representing intermediate-term investment-grade bonds in the U.S.)
+ 1.90% Corporate Bond – Morningstar Category
+ 0.84% Short Government – Morningstar Category
+ 0.28% Muni National Bond Intermediate Index – Morningstar Category
Other:
+ 5.22% Gold Price
+ 30.70% Bitcoin
– 2.19% Commodities Broad Basket – Morningstar Category
Current Annual Money Market Rates ending 06/30/2025:
4.15% Schwab Value Money Market
3.90% Schwab Treasury Money Market
Market Indicators:
Inflation:
2.35% as of May (Down 0.45% from 2.80% in February)
Unemployment:
4.2% as of 6/6/25 (up 0.1% from 4.1% in February 2025)
Fed Funds Target Rate:
4.25-4.50% as of 6/28/25 (Unchanged from 03/27/25)
Suggested Next Steps:
- Understand that market cycles are normal. The markets go up and down in mostly unpredictable directions and amounts. Many times, the ups and downs of investments seem to make sense only after they happen; however, market prediction is very difficult. (i.e., the next stock market crash has been predicted every year since 2008).
- Your investments are just one factor in the success of your life, money, and purpose. Make sure that you are confident in your full financial plan, so you can successfully have an amazing ROL (Return on Life).
- Your investment allocation and diversification are important factors in both risk management and future returns. Therefore, if you have questions about your investment plan, please schedule a phone or in-person meeting with your TrustWell Financial Advisor(s).
