Having a Time Plan for Retirement
March 1, 2026
By Brett Freese
Spring is upon us, but conflict in the Middle East has got us down.
Spring means that Easter is almost here, and it is such an important day for those of the Christian faith. It is celebrated for the conquering of spiritual death. Because He lives, so can we. Amen! It also means beautiful flowers, beach days, the start of baseball season, and the Masters Tournament in Augusta, GA.
In the midst of all those fun and wonderful events, the world has become so small that we get news and rumors almost instantly from all over the world. The conflict in the Middle East and its effects on our everyday lives are in our faces and ears 24/7.
We are not designed to take on the stress of every issue in the world, yet we find ourselves with the overwhelming knowledge of almost every world issue. This includes every agenda and political opinion. So, what should we do in times like these? Pray, be wisely informed, stick to the strategic plan of your life, make adjustments without emotional reaction, stay intentional on your priorities, and focus on the things you can control.
Related to the above topic of stress, I recently attended a discussion on mentoring 18 to 27-year-olds, and interestingly, that age group is finding that “personal peace is the new cool” thing to do. They see the Baby Boomers and Generation Xers generally living lives constantly in conflict, stress, blame, and anger, and they want something different. I’m hopeful for those young adults. May we help guide them to that peace.
Economic & Investment Highlights:
- IRAN Conflict: On February 28th, Israeli-U.S. Strikes began, and Iranian strikes were launched a few hours later in retaliation. Not surprisingly, Oil prices have been on the rise ever since. Rumors of peace talks are on the rise here in early April, but to date, nothing serious has been produced yet. Expect markets to be on edge in reaction to daily news and tweets.
- Oil and Energy Shock Consequences: Just go to the gas pump today, and you see and feel the consequences personally. Oil prices have been up substantially since the start of the year. Oil-independent countries like the U.S. are impacted (we feel it at the gas pump), but China and other more oil-dependent countries are feeling the pain at a much greater level.
- Increased Inflationary Expectations: It does not take a PHD in economics to recognize that higher energy prices equate to higher prices on anything that needs energy or needs to be physically moved. The question becomes how long this conflict will last in its current form and how long it will affect energy prices even after the conflict is resolved. If history proves correct, Central Banks (each country’s interest rate policy-setting organization) should look through energy price shocks.
- Geopolitical Relationship Shifts or Stability: Conflict in the Middle East has been going on for thousands of years, and in the last handful of decades, China and Russia have been intentional in creating and investing in Iran to frustrate the U.S. and its allies in that region of the world, so this issue is not new, just incredibly heightened.
- The Federal Reserve’s Dual Mandate Dilemma: The Fed Chairman Powell and most of the voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have been placed in a position of uncertainty. The next move of the Fed will likely be a wait-and-see approach and hold the interest rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Some on the committee are leaning towards raising rates to fight possible inflation pressures, while others are focused on signs of economic slowing. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to achieve both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI): Although AI dominated the main investment theme of growth in 2025, that has been the opposite for many companies in 2026. In fact, all of the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) stocks are down double-digits in loss percentages from their 52-week highs. The productivity of AI will both benefit and detract from many, if not most, companies over the years to come.
- Fixed Income Market: The Fixed Income Market responded to higher inflation expectations, a steady Federal Reserve, and world market volatility by increasing rates on the longer end of maturities while shorter maturity yields stayed the same to slightly lower. See “Bonds” rates below.
Historical Stock Market Declines:
Market declines and inclines rarely look the same or even feel the same, but they do happen, and the ups and downs are a part of the process. It is important to have a plan/strategy so emotions don’t dictate buying or selling.
A 5% or greater loss occurs about 3 times a year
A 10% or greater loss occurs about once a year
A 15% or greater loss occurs about once every 2 years
A 20% or greater loss occurs about once every 3.5 years
Please know that when stock prices go down, the “market collapse gurus” receive the most airtime. Likewise, when stock prices go up, all the “bull market gurus” talk about how the market will continue to be up BIG. Please know that most “gurus” are great with hindsight to justify how important it is to have their voice heard.
Market Scorecard for the last 13 weeks ending 3/31/2026:
US Equities:
– 4.33% S&P 500 (Index of the largest US publicly traded companies)
– 8.96% Large Cap Growth – Morningstar Category
+ 1.57% Large Cap Value – Morningstar Category
– 2.81% Russell 2000 Growth (Index of Small-cap growth US publicly traded companies)
+ 4.96% Russell 2000 Value (Index of Small-cap value US publicly traded companies)
International Equities:
– 4.33% Foreign Large Growth – Morningstar Category
+ 3.44% Foreign Large Value – Morningstar Category
– 1.43% Foreign Small/Mid Growth – Morningstar Category
+ 2.71% Foreign Small/Mid Value – Morningstar Category
Bonds:
– 0.04% U.S. Aggregate Bond (Index representing intermediate-term investment-grade bonds in the U.S.)
– 0.59% Corporate Bond – Morningstar Category
+ 0.30% Short Government – Morningstar Category
– 0.15% Muni National Bond Intermediate Index – Morningstar Category
Other:
+ 7.14% Gold Price
– 22.55% Bitcoin
+ 22.13% Commodities Broad Basket – Morningstar Category
Current Annual Money Market Rates ending 03/30/2026:
3.48% Schwab Value Money Market
3.39% Schwab Treasury Money Market
Market Indicators:
Inflation:
2.4% as of February (down 0.61% from 3.01% in September 2025)
Unemployment:
4.4% as of February (down 0.2% from 4.6% in November 2025)
Fed Funds Target Rate:
3.50% – 3.75% as of March (no change from 12/29/25)
Suggested Next Steps:
- Understand that market cycles are normal. The markets go up and down in mostly unpredictable directions and amounts. Many times, the ups and downs of investments seem to make sense only after they happen; however, market prediction is very difficult. (i.e., the next stock market crash has been predicted every year since 2008).
- Your investments are just one factor in the success of your life, money, and purpose. Make sure that you are confident in your full financial plan, so you can successfully have an amazing ROL (Return on Life).
- Your investment allocation and diversification are important factors in both risk management and future returns. Therefore, if you have questions about your investment plan, please schedule a phone or in-person meeting with your TrustWell Financial Advisor(s).
